مدیریت اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی

مدیریت اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی

ارزیابی تغییرات دما و بارش آینده توسط ریزمقیاس‌نمایی مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو (مطالعه موردی ایستگاه‌های منتخب سینوپتیک سواحل جنوبی ایران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
فاطمه پراکنده شهرضایی 1
سید حسن علوی نیا 2
ابراهیم امیدوار 3
1 دانشجوی کارشناس ارشد آبخیزداری، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران.
2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران.
3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران.
10.22034/emj.2024.2025835.1056
چکیده
منابع طبیعی و محیط‌زیست بستر زندگی و فعالیت انسان‌ها و دیگر موجودات است و به‌طور ویژه‌ای به آن وابسته هستند. در دهه‌های اخیر کره زمین به‌شدت تحت‌تأثیر اثرات گرمایش جهانی و تغییر اقلیم واقع شده است و کشور ایران نیز از این قاعده مستثنی نبوده است، چرا که این پدیده بر روی فعالیت‌های زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی-اجتماعی و سلامت انسان‌ها تأثیر مستقیم دارد. مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو ابزاری مناسب برای پایش رخداد تغییر اقلیم در آینده هستند که به دلیل بزرگ‌بودن مقیاس مکانی آنها، نیازمند کوچک مقیاس‌نمایی می‌باشند. در این مطالعه به بررسی وضعیت متغیرهای اقلیمی بارش و دمای میانگیـن پنج ایستگاه سینوپتیک در سواحـل جنـوبی کشـور پرداخته شد. دوره آمـاری پایه از سال ۲۰۱۵-۱۹۸۵ در نظـر گرفته شـد و چهـار سنـاریوی اقلیمی گـزارش ششم انتشـار در قـالب مدل MPI-ESM1.2-HR برای دوره آماری ۲۰۴۳-۲۰۲۳ توسط SDSM ریز‌مقیاس و محاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان از افزایش دما از 1/64 تا 8/9 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه تحت هر چهار سناریو در تمام ایستگاه‌ها است. این در حالی است که بارش در بعضی از ایستگاه‌ها و تحت برخی سناریوهای SSP کاهش و در برخی دیگر افزایشی است. افزایش در ایستگاه بوشهر تا 140درصد و کاهش تا بیشتر از 10درصد در ایستگاه کیش مورد انتظار است. تخمین، پیش‌بینی و پایش وقوع تغییر اقلیم در بازه‌های مختلف و تحت گزارش‌های بروز شده IPCC امری ضروری است تا به تصمیم‌گیران و سیاست‌گذاران در رابطه ‌با اقدام در جهت کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای و همچنین انجام عملکردهایی در جهت ‌سازش با این پدیده پیش‌رو کمک نماید.
کلیدواژه‌ها
پارامترهای اقلیمی
تغییر اقلیم
CMIP
SSP
شبیه‌سازی
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Evaluation of future temperature and precipitation changes by downscaling general circulation models(A case study of selected synoptic stations on the southern coasts of Iran)

نویسندگان English

Fatemeh Parakandeh Shahrezaei 1
Seyed Hassan Alavinia 2
Ebrahim omidvar 3
1 M.Sc. in Watershed Management, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran.
چکیده English

Natural resources and the environment are the foundation of life and human activities and other creatures, closely intertwined with them. In recent decades, the Earth has been significantly affected by the impacts of global warming and climate change and the country of Iran has not been exempted from this rule. as this phenomenon directly affects environmental, economic-social activities and human health. General circulation models are suitable tools for monitoring future climate change events, but due to their large spatial scale, they require downscaling. This study examined the status of climate variables such as precipitation and average temperature at five synoptic stations on the southern coasts of the country. The basic statistical periodconsidered from 1985 to 2015, and four climate scenarios from the sixth IPCC report were simulated using the MPI-ESM1.2-HR model for the statistical period2023-2043 through downscaling SDSM modeling. The results show an increase in temperature ranging from 1.64% to 8.9% compared to the base period under all four scenarios at all stations. Meanwhile, precipitation is decreasing at some stations under certain SSP scenarios and increasing at others. An increase of up to 140% in Bushehr station and a decrease of more than 10% in Kish station are expected. Estimating, predicting, and monitoring climate change occurrences in different time frames and according to the updated IPCC reports is essential to assist decision-makers and policymakers in taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to this leading phenomenon.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate change
CMIP
SSP
simulation
climate parameters
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  • تاریخ دریافت 14 فروردین 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 18 خرداد 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 20 خرداد 1403