نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Species distribution modeling is an effective approach for identifying potential plant habitats and investigating the factors influencing their distribution. In this study, the distribution of Valeriana sisymbriifolia species in Isfahan province was assessedwith the aim of predicting distribution changes for the present, 2040, and 2080 periodsunder the influence of climate change. The species occurrence data included 50 training sites, 50 evaluation sites, and 50 absence sites, which were randomly classified and derivedfrom t the species distribution map of the Isfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Centerand field surveys. The distance between points was adjusted according to the environmental resolution of the data (1 km2) to avoid spatial correlation. Environmental variables consisted of3 physiographic variables (slope, aspect, elevation) and 19 climatic variables, including temperature and precipitationwere obtained from the CHELSA database. Species distribution modeling was performed using GLM and GAM approaches, and model performance was evaluated based on the statistical metrics AUC, Kappa, and TSS. Among them, the GLM model achieved the highest accuracy with an AUC of 0.976. The results indicated that the slope variable exerted the strongest influencethe species’ distributionand that increasing slope being positively associated with a higher probability of species occurrence. Also, an increase in the mean temperatureof the warmest season coupled with decrease in precipitation during the coldest seasonwas found to reduce the species’ distributionof the species. The predictions indicated a significant decrease in the area of suitable and excellent habitats in the years 2040 and 2080, so that the area of excellent habitat areas will decrease from approximately 1.5% at presentto less than 0.5% in 2080. This decrease is attributable to climate change, particularly rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The results of this study indicate that the Valerian species is facing serious threat from climate change and the need for conservation planning and ecological management to maintain and improve the habitats of this species is essential.
کلیدواژهها English