Management of Natural Ecosystems

Management of Natural Ecosystems

Identifying potential priority habitats for the conservation of Hypericum scabrum under climate change

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Elham Ghehsareh Ardestani 1
Fateme Tahmasebi 2
Esmaeil Asadi 1
Nasrin Gharahi 3
Mohsen Bahmani 4
1 Associate Professor, Department of Natural Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Shahrekord, Shahrekord, Iran.
2 MS graduate, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Shahrekord, Shahrekord, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Department of Wood and Furniture Industry Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran.
10.22034/emj.2025.731847
Abstract
Climate change at the global scale leads to rapid alterations in ecosystems, and these impacts are particularly more pronounced in mountainous regions. Human pressures also further intensify these changes, and native plants display greater sensitivity to such alterations. The species H. scabrum, a perennial medicinal herb of the Hypericaceae family. This species is used in the treatment of depression and various microbial, bacterial, and viral diseases. In line with the conservation and management of the medicinal plant H. scabrum, this study predicts its current and future distribution (years 2050 and 2080) using two General Circulation Models, GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2-0, under three scenarios Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, in Isfahan Province. or predicting suitable habitat areas for H. scabrum, an ensemble modeling approach was employed using 51 presence points of the species along with bioclimatic and physiographic variables. To identify the most suitable habitats for H. scabrum and to inform conservation and restoration of these habitats, species distribution models were combined with a human pressure index map. The performance of the habitat suitability models for H. scabrum was evaluated in the acceptable to excellent range (0.46-0.92). The Results indicate that the species’ distribution is predominantly concentrated in the western and southern parts of the study area. Based on the comparison between the current and predicted future distribution of H. scabrum, the area with high habitat suitability for this medicinal species is expected to change significantly, ranging from 60.31% to 100%Climate change appears to drive a shift in the species’ distributional range from lower elevations to higher elevations in the study region. The results indicate that the southern parts of the study area as ecologically and anthropogenically critical, with high priority for the conservation of H. scabrum.
Keywords
Climate change
geographic distribution of the species
ensemble model
human pressures
Hyperaceae
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 20 October 2025
  • Revise Date 06 November 2025
  • Accept Date 12 November 2025