Management of Natural Ecosystems

Management of Natural Ecosystems

Assessment of the effects of climate change on the future range of Stipa barbata species in the southern Alborz region

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Javad Motamedi 1
Morteza Khodagholi 2
Rodstam Khalifezadeh 3
1 Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran
3 Research Expert, Rangeland Research Division, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/emj.2022.254186
Abstract
Detection of climate parameters indicates that climate change has begun in Iran and it is necessary to identify the potential habitat of the indicator species, present and future years, under climate warning models. In this regard, it should be examined whether the increase in incident temperature in the country, will have a positive effect on the presence of species in the habitats of the distribution site, or a negative effect? For this purpose, the current and future range of Stipa barbata species for the next three decades (year-2050) was predicted under two climate warning models (scenario RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using the logistic regression model. Output maps, with probability of occurrence between zero and one, to four categories unsuitable habitat (0-0.25), almost suitable habitat (0.25-0.5), habitat with high suitability (0.5-0.75) and habitat with very high suitability (0.75-1), were grouped. Finally, based on the coefficients of the variables in regression relationships, effective variables for the current and future range of S. barbata species were introduced. Based on the results; only temperature-related indices (BIO7 and BIO10) were found to be effective on the distribution of S. barbata species, present and future. The values of the indices increase with increasing climatic conditions. As a result, the range of S. barbata species decreases in response to climate change. This indicates during the next three decades, the presence of S. barbata species will decrease in the habitats of the region and there is a risk of its removal from the ecosystems of the region. In total, climate change and consequently increase in temperature characteristics causing the vertical spresd of S. barbata species, and it will move towards higher latitudes along the altitude gradient of the region.
Keywords
Rangeland ecosystems
Climate change
Species movement
Modeling
Logistic regression
Subjects
ابوالمعالی، س.م.ر.، ترکش اصفهانی، م.، و بشری، ح. (1396). ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پراکنش گونة در حال انقراض کرفس کوهی با استفاده از مدل افزایشی تعمیم یافته. محیط زیست طبیعی، (2)70، 254-243.
بذرمنش، آ.، ترکش اصفهانی، م.، بشری، ح. و پورمنافی، س. (1397). اثر تغییر اقلیم بر آشیان اکولوژیک اقلیمی گونه گیاهی (Bromus tomentellus Boiss) با استفاده از مدل Maxent در استان اصفهان. مرتع و آبخیزداری، (4)71، 867-857.
جلیلی، ع. (1400). ضرورت تغییر رویکرد در مدیریت محیط‌‌های طبیعی کشور؛ قسمت پنجم: ضرورت تغییر رویکرد در مرتعداری: تدوین طرح‌‌های مرتعداری با رویکرد اکوسیستمی. طبیعت ایران، (2)،6، 3-3.
حبیبی نوخندان، م.، غلامی) بیرقدار، م.، و شائمی برزکی، ا. (1389). تغییر اقلیم و گرم شدن کره زمین (پرسش و پاسخ). مشهد: انتشارات محقق، 138ص.
صفائی، م.، ترکش، م.، و بصیری م. (1392). تهیه منحنی‌‌های پاسخ گونه گون زرد (Astragalus verus Olivier) نسبت به شیب تغییرات محیطی با استفاده از روش None Parametric Multiplicative Regression در منطقه فریدون‌شهر استان اصفهان. گیاه و زیست بوم، (36)9، 64-53.
قاضی مرادی، م.، ترکش اصفهانی، م.، بشری، ح.، و وهابی، م.ر. (1395). تعیین رویشگاه بالقوه گونه کما (Ferula ovina Boiss) با استفاده از مدل افزایشی تعمیم یافته (GAM) در منطقه فریدون‌شهر استان اصفهان. مرتع و آبخیزداری، (3)69، 689-677.
میری، ح.ر.، و رستگار، ا. (1399). اثر افزایش غلظت دی اکسید کربن بر رشد و توانایی رقابتی سویا و ارزن با علف‌های هرز سلمه تره و تاج خروس. تولید گیاهان زراعی، (1)5، 18-1.
Dalmaris, E., Ramalho, C.E., Poot, P., Veneklaas, E.J., and Byrne, M. (2015). A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling. Annals of Botany, 116(6), 941-952.
Ferrarini, A., Rossi, G., Mondoni, A., and Orsenigo, S. (2014). Prediction of climate warming impacts on plant species could be more complex than expected, evidence from a case study in the Himalaya. Ecological Complexity, 20, 307-314.
Ghorbani, A., Samadi Khanghah, S., Moameri, M. and Esfanjani, J. (2020). Predicting the distribution of Leucanthemum vulgare using logistic regression in Fandoghlou rangelands of Ardabil province, Iran. Journal of Rangeland Science, 10(1), 98-111.
Haidarian, M., Tamartash, R., Jafarian- Jeloudar, Z., Tarkesh, M., and Tatian, M.R. (2021). The effects of climate changes on the future distribution of Astragalus adscendens in central zagros, Iran. Journal of Rangeland Science, 11(2), 152-170.
Hodd, R.L., Bourke, D., and Skeffington, M.S. (2014). Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation. PloS ONE, 9 (4), 1-14.
Ilunga Nguy, K., and Shebitz, D. (2019). Characterizing the spatial distribution of Eragrostis Curvula (Weeping Lovegrass) in New Jersey (United States of America) using logistic regression. Environments, 6(12), 1-14.
Kosanic, A., Anderson, K., Harrison, S., Turkington, T., and Bennie, J. (2018). Changes in the geographical distribution of plants pecies and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK). PLoS ONE, 13(2), 1-18.
Krebs, C.J. (2014). Ecology: The experimental analysis of distribution and abundance (6th ed). Benjamin Cummings, San Francisco, 655p.
Latimer, A.M., Wu, S., Gelfand, A.E., and Silander Jr, J.A. (2006). Building statistical models to analyze species distributions. Ecological Applications, 16(1), 33-50.
Liu, C., Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P., and Pearson, R.G. (2005). Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, 28(3), 385-393.
Monserud, R.A., and Leemans, R. (1992). Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic. Ecological Modelling, 62(4), 275-293.
Naghipour borj, A.A., Ostovar, Z., and Asadi, E. (2019). The influence of climate change on distribution of an endangered medicinal plant (Fritillaria Imperialis L.) in Central Zagros. Journal of Rangeland Science, 9(2), 159-171.
Narouei, M., Javadi, S.A., Khodagholi, M., Jafary, M., and Azizinezhad, R. (2022). Modeling potential habitats for Gymnocarpus decander using Multivariate statistical methods and logistic regression (Case study: Sistan and Baluchestan province). Journal of Rangeland Science, Accepted Manuscript Available Online from 14 March 2022.
Rana, S.K., Rana, H.K., Ghimire, S.K., Shrestha, K.K., and Ranjitkar, S. (2017). Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal. Journal of Mountain Science, 14(3), 558-570.
Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M., Gerber, J.S., Prishchepov, A.V., and Chatterjee, S. (2019). Climate changehas likely already affected global food production. PLoS ONE, 14(5), 1-18.
Sangoony, H., Vahabi, M., Tarkesh, M. and Soltani, S. (2016). Range shift of Bromus tomentellus Boiss. as a reaction to climate change in Central Zagros, Iran. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 14(4), 85-100.
Taylor, M.A., Stephenson T.S., Chen, A.A., and Stephenson, K.A. (2012). Climate change and the caribbean: Review and response. Caribbean Studies, 40(2), 169-200.
Ledig, F.T., Rehfeldt, G.E., Sáenz-Romero, C., and Flores-López, C. (2010). Projection of suitable habitate for rare species under global warming scenario. American Journal of Botany, 97(6), 970-987.
Thuiller, W., (2007). Biodiversity: Climate change and the ecologist. Nature, 448, 550-552.
Tongli, W., and Elizabeth, C. (2012). Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications. Forest Ecology and Management, 279, 128-140.
Walther, G.R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T.J., Fromentin, J.M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Bairlein, F. (2002). Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389-395.
Warren, R., Van Der Wal, J., Price, J., Welbergen, J.A., Atkinson, I., Ramirez-Villegas, J. Osborn, T.J., Jarvis, A., Shoo, L.P., Williams, S.E., and Lowe, J. (2013). Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nature Climate Change, 3(7), 678-682.
Woodward, F.I., and Williams, B.G. (1987). Climate and plant distribution at global and local scales: Vegetatio, 69, 189-197.
Yilmaz, H., Yilmaz, O.Y., and Akyuz, Y.F. (2017). Determining the factors affecting the distribution of Muscari latifolium, an endemic plant of Turkey, and a mapping species distribution model. Ecology and Evolution, 7(4), 1112-1124.
Zwicke, M., Picon-Cochard, C., Morvan-Bertrand, A., Prud’homme, M.P., and Volaire, F. (2015). What functional strategies drive drought survival and recovery of perennial species from upland grassland?. Annals of Botany, 116(6), 1001-1015.

  • Receive Date 11 March 2022
  • Revise Date 27 May 2022
  • Accept Date 30 May 2022